Another Near-Miss for Rickie Fowler

March 8th, 2010 by PGA Golf Art

How good might Rickie Fowler be? The best answer to that is: Wait and see. But the early indications are certainly very good, aren’t they?

Last year, at age 20, Fowler finished tied for second, losing in a playoff at the Frys.com Open. On Sunday, at age 21, Fowler finished solo second, a stroke behind Hunter Mahan at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Winning at age 20 or 21 is a strong indication of greatness. I’m not sure whether there’s any correlation between multiple runner-up finishes at age 20 and 21 and future stardom. But just for fun, let’s look at who’s won at those ages.

Since 1970, the only 20-year-olds to win on the PGA Tour are:

  • Seve Ballesteros (1978 Greater Greensboro Open)
  • Phil Mickelson (1991 Northern Telecom Open)
  • Tiger Woods (1996 Las Vegas Invitational and 1996 Walt Disney World/Oldsmobile Classic)

Three all-time greats. You win on the PGA Tour at age 20, you’re bound for glory. But Fowler missed out at age 20, losing in that playoff.

Fowler is now 21. Here are the golfers since 1970 who’ve won at age 21:

  • Ben Crenshaw (1973 San Antonio Texas Open)
  • Scott Verplank (1985 Western Open)
  • Robert Gamez (1990 Northern Telecom Tucson Open and 1990 Nestle Invitational)
  • Sergio Garcia (three times)
  • Tiger Woods (four times)

An impressive group. Tiger is Tiger, Crenshaw is a Hall of Famer, Sergio has been among the best in the world for a good portion of the time since those wins in 2001. Verplank didn’t live up to expectations, but has been a solid - sometimes very good - PGA Tour player for a long time. Gamez was bedeviled by injuries.

So if Fowler does win during his 21st year, it’s a good indicator but certainly no guarantee that greatness might await. Of course, plenty of golfers don’t win until later years and still become great. Fowler doesn’t have to win now to satisfy some sort of precondition.

But I’ll add just one more group of players. The golfers since 1970 to win on the PGA Tour at age 22 are: Lanny Wadkins, Jerry Pate, Bobby Clampett, David Gossett, Sean O’Hair, Anthony Kim, plus Mickelson and Woods. From a Hall of Famer (Wadkins) to a washout (Gossett). Clampett’s win was his only one; Kim and O’Hair have many years to go yet.

It’s not exactly going out on a limb to predict that Fowler has an excellent career ahead of him. But just how good do you think he’ll be? I think he’s going to win … 11 times on the PGA Tour. Cast your vote on Fowler’s future:

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Another Near-Miss for Rickie Fowler originally appeared on About.com Golf on Sunday, February 28th, 2010 at 20:36:23.

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